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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 5-J.Townsend punts 37 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model