4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model