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NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Monday 2018-12-17 · 20:15 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NO
62.0%
CAR
38.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.209 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Cam Newton (CAR) +0.101 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.346 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NO 27
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Pectoral

CAR

Graham Gano K Out left Knee
Kawann Short DT Doubtful Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 12
–
CAR 9

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:12 TD CAR (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 02:20 FG NO (2:20) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 10:00 FG NO (10:00) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – CAR 7
  • Q4 12:18 TD NO (12:18) 41-A.Kamara right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – CAR 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (10:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 29%

    (4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (2:20) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (10:00) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 23 for 13 yards (55-D.Mayo).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:22) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CAR 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:20) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to NO 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-K.Barner to CAR 17 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 34 for -1 yards (56-J.Carter; 42-C.Jones). PENALTY on NO-32-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

    (7:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 10.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 23 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 95%

    (2:30) 41-A.Kamara left end to CAR 11 for 3 yards (59-L.Kuechly; 29-M.Adams).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Thomas [56-D.Davis].