Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 9 – New Orleans Saints 12

(8:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 23 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.92 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model