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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model