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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-K.Barner to CAR 17 for 1 yard (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model