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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 12 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 41-A.Kamara left end to CAR 11 for 3 yards (59-L.Kuechly; 29-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model