Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 6

(2:20) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to NO 49, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.77 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model