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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Gregg Williams
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread -1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CAR
59.0%
CLE
41.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 25
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CAR by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CAR

Graham Gano K Out left Knee
Amini Silatolu G Out Knee
Colin Jones S Questionable Illness

CLE

Austin Corbett T Out Foot
Denzel Ward CB Out Concussion
Phillip Gaines CB Questionable Knee
Larry Ogunjobi DT Questionable Biceps
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 20
–
CLE 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:21 TD CAR (9:21) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 07:44 TD CLE (7:44) 80-J.Landry right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 14:16 TD CAR (14:16) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – CLE 7
  • Q2 08:35 TD CLE (8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – CLE 13
  • Q2 04:07 FG CAR (4:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 17 – CLE 14
  • Q2 01:03 FG CLE (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CAR 17 – CLE 17
  • Q3 07:15 FG CAR (7:15) 4-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 20 – CLE 17
  • Q4 13:10 TD CLE (13:10) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – CLE 23
  • Q4 08:51 FG CLE (8:51) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CAR 20 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 26%

    (2:46) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (4:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 33%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel to CLE 15 for 33 yards (39-T.Mitchell) [20-B.Boddy-Calhoun].

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 18 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 53%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to CAR 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 40%

    (10:41) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 80-I.Thomas to CLE 36 for 9 yards (23-D.Randall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (7:15) 4-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:23) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to CLE 6, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 25 for 19 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:48) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to CLE 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (8:51) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-K.Barner to CAR 35 for 6 yards (27-T.Thomas; 59-D.Hines).