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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model