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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel to CLE 15 for 33 yards (39-T.Mitchell) [20-B.Boddy-Calhoun].

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model