Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 95

Cleveland Browns 17 – Carolina Panthers 17

(11:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to CAR 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model