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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 20 – Cleveland Browns 26

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model