Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 20 – Cleveland Browns 23

(12:48) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to CLE 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model