Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.312 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.013 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.416 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
NO
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:27 FG DAL (9:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NO 0 – DAL 3
- Q1 01:05 TD DAL (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – DAL 9
- Q2 00:55 FG DAL (:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NO 0 – DAL 13
- Q3 10:03 FG NO (10:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – DAL 13
- Q3 01:15 TD NO (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 18-K.Kirkwood for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – DAL 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(9:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:01) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 29 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee).
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Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:44) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to NO 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara to NO 26 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier).
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Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:15) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to DAL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
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Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(13:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to DAL 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-31-C.Banjo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 22.
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Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 99%
(10:04) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to DAL 1 for no gain (90-D.Lawrence, 98-T.Crawford).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%
(:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 15Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%
(10:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NO 17, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NO 12.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(14:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to NO 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NO 34 for 16 yards (91-L.Ladouceur; 38-J.Heath).
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Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%
(9:19) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to DAL 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington. Dallas challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.