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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(10:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP