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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to DAL 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington. Dallas challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP