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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:15) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to DAL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model