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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 29 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model