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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 8

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model