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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 20:20 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

LAC
52.3%
PIT
47.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.182 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.211 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.350 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 28
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: LAC by 2 Projected total: 54

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

Joe Barksdale T Out Not Injury Related
Melvin Gordon RB Out Knee
Brandon Mebane DT Out Not Injury Related
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Quadricep

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Knee
Morgan Burnett S Doubtful Back
Cameron Sutton CB Questionable Not Injury Related
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 33
–
PIT 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD PIT (9:25) 30-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 04:44 TD PIT (4:44) 76-C.Okorafor reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – PIT 13
  • Q1 01:12 TD LAC (1:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – PIT 13
  • Q2 02:45 FG PIT (2:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. LAC 7 – PIT 16
  • Q2 00:24 TD PIT (:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – PIT 22
  • Q3 01:49 TD LAC (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-23-J.Haden was injured during the play. LAC 13 – PIT 23
  • Q4 13:11 TD LAC (13:11) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LAC 27, Center-57-K.Canaday. 20-D.King for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-57-K.Canaday was injured during the play. LAC 21 – PIT 23
  • Q4 08:14 TD LAC (8:14) (Shotgun) 32-J.Jackson left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 29 – PIT 23
  • Q4 04:18 TD PIT (4:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 38-J.Samuels for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 30 – PIT 29
  • Q4 00:00 FG LAC (:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 33 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 66%

    (11:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:47) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 36 yards to LAC 48, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 47 yards to PIT 21, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 21.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 63 yards to LAC 17, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (3:50) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 4 yards to LAC 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-J.Samuels MUFFS catch, recovered by PIT-37-J.Dangerfield at LAC 34. Punt was deflected by 54-Fort.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (2:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:47) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 52 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 18 for 9 yards (48-N.Dzubnar, 57-J.Brown). PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at PIT 18.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 32%

    (9:59) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 35 yards to LAC 12, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to LAC 21, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 42%

    (5:58) (Run formation) 30-J.Conner up the middle to LAC 41 for 2 yards (20-D.King).