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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP