4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 63 yards to LAC 17, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-29-B.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.80 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP