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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 36 yards to LAC 48, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model