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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model