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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 4 yards to LAC 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-J.Samuels MUFFS catch, recovered by PIT-37-J.Dangerfield at LAC 34. Punt was deflected by 54-Fort.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.08 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP