Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CAR offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- TB offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.145 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.149 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
CAR
TB
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:53 TD TB (9:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – TB 6
- Q1 06:44 FG TB (6:44) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. CAR 0 – TB 10
- Q1 04:20 TD CAR (4:20) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 10
- Q2 00:20 TD TB (:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – TB 16
- Q3 11:02 FG CAR (11:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – TB 17
- Q3 07:29 TD TB (7:29) 67-M.Liedtke reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – TB 23
- Q3 02:29 TD CAR (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%
(6:44) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
-
Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:54) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to CAR 15, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 23-K.Barner MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CAR 20.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(14:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(7:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 23. 10-A.Humphries to TB 23 for no gain (23-K.Barner).
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%
(11:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 34%
(12:31) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to CAR 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 16%
(8:54) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 76 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(4:17) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to CAR 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 23-K.Barner to CAR 21 for no gain (85-B.Wilson).
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 48 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 24%
(2:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Funchess.
-
Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 54 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:13) 9-B.Anger punts 28 yards to CAR 26, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-32-J.Rodgers.