Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

(1:54) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to CAR 15, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 23-K.Barner MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model