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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to CAR 13, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 23-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP