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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to CAR 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 23-K.Barner to CAR 21 for no gain (85-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model