Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Carolina Panthers 17

(1:13) 9-B.Anger punts 28 yards to CAR 26, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-32-J.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model