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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model