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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2018-12-02 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

BUF
35.9%
MIA
64.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.255 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.170 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BUF

John Miller G Out Oblique
Derek Anderson QB Out Concussion
Charles Clay TE Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Danny Amendola WR Doubtful Knee
Travis Swanson C Doubtful Ankle
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 17
–
MIA 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 TD MIA (9:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 11-D.Parker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. BUF 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 11:53 TD BUF (11:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-Z.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. PENALTY on MIA-91-C.Wake, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 00:44 TD MIA (:44) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 32-K.Drake for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 13
  • Q3 09:06 FG BUF (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr. BUF 9 – MIA 14
  • Q4 12:05 TD BUF (12:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-Z.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 15 – MIA 14
  • Q4 08:48 TD MIA (8:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-K.Stills for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-T.Murphy]. BUF 17 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:57) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 53 yards to MIA 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-K.Stills to MIA 13 for 6 yards (29-S.Neal).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 16 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 47 yards to MIA 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-K.Stills MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 13. 10-K.Stills to MIA 13 for no gain (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-C.Armstrong.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:36) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 42, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:57) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 33 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-34-S.Perry at BUF 36. 34-S.Perry to BUF 36 for no gain (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 56 yards to BUF 4, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:29) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 50 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BUF 23, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 22%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 11 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 71%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-C.Clay.