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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 14

Buffalo Bills 6 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(9:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model