Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-34-S.Perry at BUF 36. 34-S.Perry to BUF 36 for no gain (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model