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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 6 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Punt formation) 8-M.Darr punts 33 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model