Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 91

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

(9:36) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 42, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.41 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 91, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model