Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

(1:59) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-C.Armstrong.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.35 EP
52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model