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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-11-25 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

MIA
27.8%
IND
72.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.158 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than IND
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
IND 28
Projected margin: IND by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

MIA

Jakeem Grant WR Out Achilles
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Knee
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Hamstring
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Shin
Ja'Wuan James T Questionable Knee
Ted Larsen G Questionable Neck
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Shoulder

IND

Ryan Hewitt TE Out Ankle
Ryan Kelly C Out Knee
Erik Swoope TE Out Knee
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 24
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:30 TD MIA (12:30) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 32-K.Drake for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-94-T.Lewis, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 6 – IND 0
  • Q1 09:43 TD IND (9:43) 62-L.Clark reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 01:49 TD IND (1:49) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 01:15 TD MIA (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 88-L.Carroo for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-K.Turay]. MIA 13 – IND 14
  • Q3 09:18 FG MIA (9:18) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 17 – IND 14
  • Q4 13:42 TD MIA (13:42) 32-K.Drake up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – IND 14
  • Q4 08:31 FG IND (8:31) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. MIA 24 – IND 17
  • Q4 04:30 TD IND (4:30) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. PENALTY on MIA-25-X.Howard, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA 24 – IND 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG IND (:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. MIA 24 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 49%

    (5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 59%

    (:55) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to IND 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (15:00) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-K.Stills.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:46) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:23) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:42) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to IND 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 59%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 12-A.Luck to MIA 35 for 4 yards (20-R.Jones).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (13:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 8 yards to IND 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 55-J.Baker MUFFS catch, touched at IND 41, recovered by MIA-93-A.Spence at IND 42. 93-A.Spence to IND 42 for no gain (46-L.Rhodes). Deflected by MIA #47

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (9:18) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (3:36) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 77%

    (10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 30 for 1 yard (22-T.McDonald).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (8:31) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:57) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to IND 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 31 for 8 yards (31-C.Armstrong, 45-M.Hull). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 21.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:50) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to IND 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 42 for 14 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.