Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 2-M.Haack punts 57 yards to IND 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 31 for 8 yards (31-C.Armstrong, 45-M.Hull). PENALTY on IND-28-C.Milton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model