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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP