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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model