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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to IND 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 27 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.93 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP