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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to IND 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model