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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-11-18 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

TEN
34.8%
IND
65.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
IND 26
Projected margin: IND by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Knee
Taywan Taylor WR Questionable Foot
Tajae Sharpe WR Questionable Ankle
Quinton Spain G Questionable Ankle

IND

Ryan Hewitt TE Out Ankle
D.J. Killings CB Out Ankle
Erik Swoope TE Out Knee
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Ankle
Malik Hooker S Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 10
–
IND 38

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:20 TD IND (1:20) 25-M.Mack left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 11:04 FG IND (11:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. TEN 0 – IND 10
  • Q2 07:37 TD IND (7:37) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 16
  • Q2 02:37 TD IND (2:37) 20-J.Wilkins left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 23
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – IND 24
  • Q3 07:31 TD IND (7:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at TEN 2 for 12 yards (25-A.Jackson). Penalty on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, declined. Indianapolis challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, declined. TEN 3 – IND 30
  • Q4 12:20 TD IND (12:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 15-D.Inman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 3 – IND 37
  • Q4 01:53 TD TEN (1:53) 7-B.Gabbert pass short left to 19-T.Sharpe for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – IND 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 51%

    (9:27) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:09) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-32-A.Maulet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:09) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to IND 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:35) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 30 for 15 yards (56-S.Finch). PENALTY on IND-14-Z.Pascal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:31) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:53) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:55) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for 4 yards (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.