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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 38 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model