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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model