Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 31

(4:53) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model