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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to IND 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP