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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 6-B.Kern punts 32 yards to IND 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model